Clear thinking
Clearer reasoning under uncertainty.
Most bad decisions are not made by people who lack information. They are made by people who had the information and reasoned over it badly, anchoring on the vivid case, ignoring the base rate, stopping at the first consequence. These lectures are about the mechanics of that failure and the habits that interrupt it.
4 lectures on clear thinking
In the workshop
- Reading the Room
- The Economy of Speech
- Thinking in Probabilities
- The Ego Is the Enemy of Seeing
- The Architecture of Habit
- Friction as a Tool
- Deep Work in a Shallow World
- Mental Models
- Second-Order Thinking
- The Base Rate You Ignore
- How to Be Wrong Well
- Memory and the Illusion of Learning
- The Function of Anxiety
- Negotiation Without Manipulation